How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation β a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister β a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal β and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us β for our nation β the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region β including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines β a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power β and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.